What Google Trends might reveal about Oman holidays and Oman Air
The Economist published an item a couple of weeks ago, suggesting that Google Trends could help in forecasting economic trends. The argument hinges on whether the frequency of searches for specific keywords or phrases indicates changing patterns of consumer behaviour.
No less a person than Google's chief economist, who is also an economics professor at the University of California Berkeley campus, together with a fellow Google colleague, propose that because Google updates the data on searches daily, the frequency of search terms can be used to refine econometric models before official data is released.
Amongst other illustrations, it seems that searches for Hong Kong made in different countries predicted eventual arrivals in the territory from these countries rather well.
I thought I'd try out Google Trends to look at the pattern for searches on 'Oman holidays.'
The image shows that usable data was available to Google only from the end of 2006, with a flat period in the first half of 2007. Searches using the expression 'Oman holidays' peaked around Christmas time in 2007, declined towards late Spring and early Summer 2008, before rising again towards December 2008. If you recall, all five star hotels in Muscat were closed for the AGCC conference between 23rd-30th December, effectively cancelling all Christmas and New Year bookings.
Searches on 'Oman holidays' have declined since then, although whether they will rise later in the year remains to be seen. Perhaps not, given the December 2008 experience and current economic restraints.
Then I examined the locations from where the search term 'Oman holidays' had originated. This was puzzling. The overwhelming number of searches seem to have been made in Oman itself, followed by the UAE.
So I looked for Hong Kong on Google Trends and discovered the same characteristic. Most searches on Hong Kong are made in Hong Kong itself. Which probably means that most searches for Oman do originate within Oman.
How about a comparison between 'Oman holidays' and 'Dubai holidays'? Perhaps unsurprisingly, there has been a much greater proportion of searches for 'Dubai holidays' (the red line on the graph) than 'Oman holidays' (the blue line on the graph). Incidentally, we're looking at relative results here rather than absolute numbers of searches, so don't take too much notice of the left hand axis of the graph.
When looking at the provenance of searches on 'Dubai holidays', notice the greater volume originating in UK and Ireland for 'Dubai holidays' compared with 'Oman holidays.'
Overall, there is no doubt that people are looking for Dubai holidays much more than they are for Oman holidays. Oman will have to work much harder at raising its public profile to obtain the same level of interest.
Given that Oman Air has been tasked with boosting tourism in Oman, I thought it might be instructive to compare trends for Google searches on 'Oman Air (the blue line on the graph below), 'Gulf Air' (the orange line on the graph below) and 'Emirates Airlines' (the red line on the graph below).
The graph shows a small rise in searches for Oman Air beginning in 2007 at about the time that Oman left Gulf Air to focus on its national airline. The concomitant drop in searches for 'Gulf Air' from early 2007, is much steeper. But note that the number of searches for 'Emirates Airlines' increased sharply from the same time. The patterns on the graph suggest that Oman's withdrawal from Gulf Air rewarded Emirates Airways rather than Oman Air, always assuming that the trends on the graph in any way reflect numbers for passenger travel.
Note the steep rise in searches for 'Emirates Airlines' in the first months of 2009. I would suggest that this is because people were looking for flights out of the country rather than flying to it. The bar chart below shows that most of the searches were made in UAE, other Gulf countries and Pakistan.
Oman Air has had to rebuild itself from being a small, regional carrier in order to assume its new role as a mainline flag carrier, as admitted by Peter Hill late in 2008 New aircraft are to come into operation over the next two years, and the company has had to lease other aircraft in order to develop its new routes. Earlier this year, the Omani government raised the paid-up capital of the company from RO50 to RO300 in order to cover last year's losses caused by higher fuel costs and the purchase of new aircraft.
Data from Google Trends suggests that Oman Air will require a lot of PR support from its partner, the Ministry of Tourism, in order to promote Oman's tourism industry. At least in the short term, there is likely to be much more interest at the regional, rather than the global level.
Just to show you that the trends shown here are not necessarily diagnostic, try doing an investigation of 'Oman tourism.' You'll get rather different results. But then, 'tourism' does not have the same meaning as 'holidays.'
No less a person than Google's chief economist, who is also an economics professor at the University of California Berkeley campus, together with a fellow Google colleague, propose that because Google updates the data on searches daily, the frequency of search terms can be used to refine econometric models before official data is released.
Amongst other illustrations, it seems that searches for Hong Kong made in different countries predicted eventual arrivals in the territory from these countries rather well.
I thought I'd try out Google Trends to look at the pattern for searches on 'Oman holidays.'
The image shows that usable data was available to Google only from the end of 2006, with a flat period in the first half of 2007. Searches using the expression 'Oman holidays' peaked around Christmas time in 2007, declined towards late Spring and early Summer 2008, before rising again towards December 2008. If you recall, all five star hotels in Muscat were closed for the AGCC conference between 23rd-30th December, effectively cancelling all Christmas and New Year bookings.
Searches on 'Oman holidays' have declined since then, although whether they will rise later in the year remains to be seen. Perhaps not, given the December 2008 experience and current economic restraints.
Then I examined the locations from where the search term 'Oman holidays' had originated. This was puzzling. The overwhelming number of searches seem to have been made in Oman itself, followed by the UAE.
So I looked for Hong Kong on Google Trends and discovered the same characteristic. Most searches on Hong Kong are made in Hong Kong itself. Which probably means that most searches for Oman do originate within Oman.
How about a comparison between 'Oman holidays' and 'Dubai holidays'? Perhaps unsurprisingly, there has been a much greater proportion of searches for 'Dubai holidays' (the red line on the graph) than 'Oman holidays' (the blue line on the graph). Incidentally, we're looking at relative results here rather than absolute numbers of searches, so don't take too much notice of the left hand axis of the graph.
When looking at the provenance of searches on 'Dubai holidays', notice the greater volume originating in UK and Ireland for 'Dubai holidays' compared with 'Oman holidays.'
Overall, there is no doubt that people are looking for Dubai holidays much more than they are for Oman holidays. Oman will have to work much harder at raising its public profile to obtain the same level of interest.
Given that Oman Air has been tasked with boosting tourism in Oman, I thought it might be instructive to compare trends for Google searches on 'Oman Air (the blue line on the graph below), 'Gulf Air' (the orange line on the graph below) and 'Emirates Airlines' (the red line on the graph below).
The graph shows a small rise in searches for Oman Air beginning in 2007 at about the time that Oman left Gulf Air to focus on its national airline. The concomitant drop in searches for 'Gulf Air' from early 2007, is much steeper. But note that the number of searches for 'Emirates Airlines' increased sharply from the same time. The patterns on the graph suggest that Oman's withdrawal from Gulf Air rewarded Emirates Airways rather than Oman Air, always assuming that the trends on the graph in any way reflect numbers for passenger travel.
Note the steep rise in searches for 'Emirates Airlines' in the first months of 2009. I would suggest that this is because people were looking for flights out of the country rather than flying to it. The bar chart below shows that most of the searches were made in UAE, other Gulf countries and Pakistan.
Oman Air has had to rebuild itself from being a small, regional carrier in order to assume its new role as a mainline flag carrier, as admitted by Peter Hill late in 2008 New aircraft are to come into operation over the next two years, and the company has had to lease other aircraft in order to develop its new routes. Earlier this year, the Omani government raised the paid-up capital of the company from RO50 to RO300 in order to cover last year's losses caused by higher fuel costs and the purchase of new aircraft.
Data from Google Trends suggests that Oman Air will require a lot of PR support from its partner, the Ministry of Tourism, in order to promote Oman's tourism industry. At least in the short term, there is likely to be much more interest at the regional, rather than the global level.
Just to show you that the trends shown here are not necessarily diagnostic, try doing an investigation of 'Oman tourism.' You'll get rather different results. But then, 'tourism' does not have the same meaning as 'holidays.'
