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A little piece of history dies

I didn't know about Professor J B Kelly until I read his obituary published in today's Daily Telegraph.

He had a long association with the Gulf and particularly with Oman. I can only quote:
Kelly made his first trip to the Gulf in 1957.

He visited Iraq in the dying days of the Hashemite regime and then flew on to the Trucial Coast - known in the 19th century as the Pirate Coast, and now forming the United Arab Emirates. The only Europeans in Abu Dhabi at that time were either oil men, diplomats or soldiers.

The British political officer introduced him to Sheikh Shakhbut before taking him to see his brother, Sheikh Zayid. Kelly was to form a firm friendship with both men, which was to survive the political turmoil in Abu Dhabi in the following two decades.

He paid a particularly instructive visit to Buraimi, Oman, from where British-officered Trucial Scouts had ejected an American-backed Saudi force (engaged on an oil-grabbing mission) in 1955. He and the political officer, Martin Buckmaster, soon picked up signs that the Saudis were retaliating by stirring up the tribes of inner Oman with arms and money. Kelly passed this information on to the British political resident in Bahrain, Sir Bernard Burrows, who discounted it, coming as it did from a Gulf novice.

Burrows returned on leave to London, only to be called back to the Gulf in a hurry in July 1957 when the Imamate rebellion broke out in Oman. Kelly's first publication, written for Chatham House, was a paper on the revolt.
Subsequently, the British had to assist Sultan Said bin Taimur to put down the insurrection centred on Al Jabal Al Akhdar.
in the early 1980s, Kelly's advice on the region was sought by administration officials, senators, congressmen, journalists and think-tanks. He was directly involved in lobbying against the sale of AWACs early-warning aircraft to Saudi Arabia, arguing that it would further destabilise the region. But as Saudi influence grew in Washington with Reagan's forging of an informal alliance with the kingdom, Kelly's influence inevitably declined. His prescient warnings that Saudi money was being used to establish an international network of Muslim fundamentalists were thus largely ignored.

Subsequently, he advised the government of Oman on its disputed frontiers with Saudi Arabia and South Yemen, paying trips to inner Oman, Dhofar and the Musandam Peninsula.
I would recommend reading this article as a small insight into the history of the Sultanate.

Note that Sir Ivor Lucas, ambassador to Oman between 1979-81 commented that, as a junior member of staff to Sir Bernard Burrows, he did not recall that Professor Kelly's warning to the political resident about Saudi machinations was ever 'discounted.' For further reading, see Oman's Insurgencies: the Sultanate's Struggle for Supremacy, by J E Petersen, published 2007 by SAQI. Dr Petersen acted as official historian of the Sultan's Armed Forces while working in the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister for Security and Defence.

11:54:32 on 09/26/09 by Sue Hutton - General - 1 comment - Permalink

Mixed results for His Majesty's state visit to Iran

Amongst Western media sources, apparently only the Wall Street Journal announced the visit of HM Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said and his high level delegation to Iran at the start of August, and then only in passing.

I listened closely to BBC News on 5th August 2009, the day that Mahmoud Ahmedinejad was installed as president of Iran, while opposition protests continued in the streets, but no mention was made of the Omani Sultan's visit.

The visit had been postponed from 28th June, when rioting and unrest, and objections of corruption from other participants in Iran's elections gave the Omani side second thoughts. Not because Oman had objections to the conduct of elections, but because Mr Ahmedinejad had not been confirmed in his post.

It would never do from the point of protocol for the Omani Head of State to meet someone who might conceivably be an imposter.

Asharq al-Awsat emphasised that all the Gulf states would observe the appropriate protocols, and send a congratulatory telegram to the newly installed Iranian president.

I have read that the lower Gulf states have rather more respect for Iran than they do for Saudi Arabia. But some might say that these states would be uncomfortable with Iran's sheer military size and postulated development of nuclear weapons as opposed to the peaceful development of nuclear power.

On which the reader should note that both Oman and UAE have also signed agreements with foreign powers to develop nuclear energy. Oman signed an agreement with Russia's Rosatom in June whereas the UAE signed deals with France in 2008 and with the USA early this year.

Oman has no particular disagreements with Iran. An Iranian official has been quoted as saying that "There is no outstanding problem on ideological level or in territorial issues between the two countries. That's why they [Iranian leaders] think partnership with Oman is more promising in the long run."

Nonetheless, Oman's minister responsible for foreign affairs, Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, had been making shuttlecock trips between Muscat and Tehran, presumably negotiating for the most suitable time for His Majesty to make his delayed visit.

I would not call the timing of the visit a triumph of diplomacy. And one is left wondering whether Mr Abdullah had other motives for promoting it. Is it noteworthy that a month later, as chairman of the GCC Council's foreign ministers' meeting in Riyadh, Mr Abdullah placed emphasis on His Majesty's successful visit to Iran in the context of bringing security to the region, called for the right of all countries to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes and a rapprochement between Iran and the West on this issue?

Because you could say that there was a hint of desperation, reinforced by headlines from Tehran, such as, "Oman eyes importing 2bcf of gas from Iran."

'"The Omani delegation declared their dire need to import 2 billion cubic feet of Iranian gas," Mehr quotes an Iranian gas official saying'

Significant agreements were signed. The Hormuz Petrochemicals company was established as an $800m joint venture between Oman Oil Company (OOC) and NBC international company to develop a urea production plant in southern Iran. "Oman oil and Hirbodan EPC also signed a MoU to build a power generation plant at Queshm Free Zone."

Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah for Oman and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki signed security agreements on exchanging information, combating infiltration, smuggling and crime as well as an MoU to set up a centre for teaching Persian in Muscat, establishing other cultural activities and exchanged documents on the avoidance of double taxation on taxes resulting from investments by both governments.

The big deal didn't happen. The Omani delegation came home empty handed over the gas issue. Oman had signed an agreement with Iran only last year to develop Iran's Kish gas field and to build a pipeline to a LNG plant at Sohar, at a projected cost of $12b. The understanding was that Oman would need to form a partnership with an unspecified Asian country that had the technical expertise that OOC lacked.

The presence of the ministers of national economy, commerce and industry and oil and gas in the delegation indicated that Oman fully expected progress towards closure on this proposal. Expansion of industrial ventures in Oman will be severely hindered if more energy supplies are not forthcoming, including four enhanced oil recovery projects.

It wasn't the unit price that was under discussion apparently, but Iran's uncertainty about how much gas the Kish field actually contains. It seems that it may not be as bountiful as at first thought.

Iran has suggested to Oman that it could enter a gas swap arrangement. If Oman can come to agreement with a gas-rich Central Asian state, Iran could import gas from the north, and then pipe gas to Oman from its southern fields. This would be a new departure for the Omanis.

I wonder what His Majesty thought of it all. Was he fully aware that he would not come away with the assurance of energy supplies vitally needed by his country?

And would it rub it in that UAE's Mubadala Petroleum Services Company has put a bid in to import gas from Iran's Salman field, now that the National Iranian Oil Company' deal with Crescent National Gas Corporation has been unable to resolve unit prices? Mubadala is a key shareholder in Dolphin Energy, a company that exports gas from Qatar into UAE.

21:43:45 on 09/13/09 by Sue Hutton - Business and industry - comments - Permalink


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