Navigation

I could hardly believe this, but this alert has just come in. Click on the graphics until you reach the projected track. This link is only effective for the duration of the alert.

40% probability of a Tropical Storm reaching Muscat in 48 hours. Which means that it's low likelihood, but you could still get heavy rainfall.

Updated at 16:20 hours BST: the storm track has moved north and is now lying south of Karachi. It is projected to move across the coast of Pakistan in the region of Gwadar and then into southern Iran, which also suffered substantially following the passage of Gonu. The probability of the storm affecting Muscat has fallen to 1 - 5%.

________________________________________
From: TSRhelpdesk@mssl.ucl.ac.uk
Sent: 25 June 2007 09:59
Subject: TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm 03B

Storm Alert issued at 25 Jun, 2007 6:00 GMT
Tropical Storm 03B is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
India
probability for TS is 80% currently
Pakistan
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Iran
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Gwadar (25.3 N, 62.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Chah Bahar (25.4 N, 60.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Ormara (25.3 N, 64.6 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Oman
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kalak (25.5 N, 59.3 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Nikshahr (26.2 N, 60.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Mandvi (22.9 N, 69.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently
Hoshab (26.0 N, 64.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Muscat (23.5 N, 58.6 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Fins (22.9 N, 59.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Sur (22.5 N, 59.6 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.