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HM Sultan Qaboos of Oman to visit Iran before end June

If you follow the news, it's highly unlikely that you would be unaware of the turmoil in Iran this week following last week's presidential elections.

Swift announcement of results giving Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a clear majority of the vote seemed suspect to many. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given full backing to Ahmadinejad. The authorities have arrested many eminent 'reformist' individuals, restricted Internet and SMS services and stopped renewing visas for foreign journalists in a bid to prevent organised opposition and news leaking from the country. Armed police stormed a dormitory at Tehran University.

The principal opposition candidate, Mirhossein Mousavi, has called for a day of mourning in memory of several people who have been killed in street battles.

In spite of the best efforts of the Iranian authorities to exert control, thousands of people still pour into the streets in quiet order to support Mousavi and to protest at the election results.

Amidst all these uncertainties, the Oman News Agency released a statement yesterday announcing that His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said of Oman would be visiting Iran late this month at the invitation of the Iranian president Dr Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The statement therefore implies that the Omani authorities believe the present turmoil in Iran to be a passing phase, and that order will be restored by the date of the visit. Given the time scale, this has to be projected to next week or early the week after.

The Omani deputation includes the Minister of the Diwan of the Royal Court, Sayyid Ali bin Hamoud al Busaidi; the Minister responsible for Foreign affairs, Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah; the Minister for National Economy, Ahmed Bin Abdulnabi Macki; the Minister for Commerce and Industry, Maqbool bin Ali bin Sultan; the Minister of Oil and Gas, Dr. Mohammed bin Hamed al-Rumhi; the Inspector General of Police and Customs, Lt.Gen. Malik bin Sulaiman al Maamari; as well as the Ministers reponsible for Cultural affairs and Health.

The presence of the Inspector General of Police and Customs in the party suggests that there will be discussions about border controls, smuggling and people trafficking.

The nature of the visit could presage a major agreement over development of gas fields in the Persian Gulf, which has been in the offing for some time. Oman, it has been claimed, would foot the bill for development of the Kish/Henjam gas field, contiguous with Oman's own West Bukha block, but has been unable to raise the finance in the current global economic environment. Iran has become impatient at the delay. Today, the Tehran Times has reported that companies from China and the UAE are interested in entering into the development plan.

Oman needs extra energy supplies to sustain its policy of developing its manufacturing sector, and to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.

Of course, His Majesty is making his visit to Iran in reply to the invitation extended by the Iranian president when he visited Muscat two years ago. But to visit against the backdrop of the current political situation shows that someone in Oman has very strong reasons for keeping to the plan.

Update at 3rd July 2009

Unsurprisingly, His Majesty's visit to Iran was postponed indefinitely due to the political unrest.

Was it naivety or cynicism which resulted in the official announcement of the visit? Or a blend of the two? Naivety inasmuch as Omani advisers appeared to have misjudged and underestimated Iranian public protest and the backlash against the presidential elections, and cynicism because it was assumed that the unrest would have died down before the visit was to take place.

I found it risible that someone on Twitter claimed that His Majesty had called off the visit to show his allegiance with the opposition protesters in Iran.

No doubt an official explanation would refer to the wise and pragmatic policies of His Majesty's government.

A press release from the Iranian Students' News Agency published today claims that His Majesty has postponed his trip only for two weeks. Talks will focus on joint exploitation of oil and gas fields.

23:39:11 on 06/17/09 by Sue Hutton - Category: International relations - Permalink

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